Make or break - the PM's first Trump test
In what could be the most important meeting of his Prime Ministership, Anthony Albanese needs to land as many wins as possible. by Nico Louw.
First published in the MRC’s Watercooler newsletter. Sign up to our mailing list to receive Watercooler directly in your inbox.
In under two weeks, Anthony Albanese will finally have a meeting with Donald Trump. The importance of this meeting cannot be overstated.
Unfortunately, the Government’s approach to foreign policy feels very outdated. International relations seems to be treated as an afterthought to domestic politics that can be managed by ticking boxes at choreographed international visits.
This approach risks leaving Australia unprepared for major changes that could happen in coming years. The benign international environment of stable markets, trade and borders has come to an end. The Western dominated ‘rules-based order’ has been replaced by a period of disorder.
Australia sits in the middle of great power competition, between the West’s most important strategic adversary in China, and an at-times unreliable ally in the US. This competition will have real impacts on the economy and lives of all Australians. Managing this challenge should be front of mind for any Prime Minister.
In just the last few weeks, strategic competition was on full display when apparent Chinese interference scuttled the signing of two major security agreements between Australia and Vanuatu and PNG, embarrassing the PM.
This is despite Albanese repeating the mantra that the relationship with China has been ‘stabilised’. Make no mistake, the relationship is stable only as long as this suits Chinese interests. It could change quickly.
Australia is the most China-dependent economy in the OECD. Our Budget is heavily reliant on corporate tax, which depends in large part on exporting resources to China. Rumours this week of a Chinese ban on BHP iron ore were a potent reminder of our exposure.
At a time when much of the developed world is considering the challenging question of how to become less economically dependent on China, Albanese appears determined to send signals to voters and businesses that strategic competition is something we can sit out, or at least easily manage.
In contrast to his non-meeting with Trump, earlier this year the PM found time for a week-long official visit to China, longer than almost any other world leader in recent years.
But the US, whether we like it or not, is our most important relationship.
Trump deals heavily in personal relationships. Yet, 330+ days since the US election, he doesn’t have one with our Prime Minister. This means we aren’t even an afterthought for the President as he takes actions with profound consequences for our country and region.
It is in the national interest for the Prime Minister to turn this around with a successful meeting. Success doesn’t necessarily mean a tariff reduction for the steel and aluminium sectors, at least not yet.
For the time being, it would be a win to see the President at least be familiar with the PM and say something positive about AUKUS. We need confidence that, when Trump is making deals and taking decisions that affect the Indo-Pacific, Australia might actually be included in his calculus.
Albanese’s starting position is, to put it bluntly, not good. It is for the best that he didn’t secure a meeting with the President in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. It’s likely Albanese never wanted such a meeting and didn’t even ask for one.
Being one of many short ‘pull-aside’ meetings would not have been a good way to have a first meeting. It’s likely that all the President would have taken in during a quick pre-briefing is that the Australian PM once said Trump “scares the shit out of me” and that he has just recognised Palestine.
An Oval Office meeting is not without its risks, as seen in the experiences of both the Ukrainian and South African Presidents. Even in friendly meetings, such as with the UK PM and French President, Trump dominates proceedings in front of the cameras.
But a meeting in the Oval means Albanese will have the focus of the President and his team. This gives him the best opportunity to form a real personal relationship with the man who will define world events for the rest of Albanese’s second term.
Albanese has under two weeks to land as many wins as possible to build a strong foundation for what could be the most important meeting of his Prime Ministership. He will have to work extra hard, since he’s planning to take one of those two weeks off for a holiday.
If there are any planned investments in defence capabilities in the pipeline, he should announce them to ensure our Defence budget is closer to 3% of GDP.
After apparently rescuing the PNG defence treaty, the Government should be pulling out all the stops to sign the forestalled security agreement with Vanuatu. The Pacific is Australia’s responsibility and this failure will have been noticed in Washington.
Albanese will be among the last G20 leaders to meet with Trump, behind only the Brazilian and Mexican Presidents, who have fractious relationships with the President. He has a lot of catching up to do.
A strong showing could secure AUKUS and send a strong signal to China and our allies. A weak one risks leaving Australia on the sidelines in a period of global upheaval. It is in the national interest that Albanese succeeds.
