A foreign state
the current predicament in victoria is what happens when a long-term government puts politics before public interest. by david hughes.
First published in the MRC’s Watercooler newsletter. Sign up to our mailing list to receive Watercooler directly in your inbox.
For many Australians, a trip to Victoria has often felt like travelling overseas.
Victoria once stood out for its prosperity, culture and confidence. However, in 2025 Victoria feels different and for all the wrong reasons. It’s less safe, less cohesive and probably the last place in Australia you’d want to start a business.
This situation should concern us all, not just Victorians.
The current predicament is what happens when a long-term government puts politics before public interest. Decisions are made to reward supporters and interest groups and standard democratic scrutiny is seen as a threat to the establishment. Action comes only when the headlines demand it, by which time the damage has already been done.
The problem is not that Victoria has a Labor government, but that it has a bad one. Governments of the Left can govern well when guided by principles — when they govern for all, not just their own. Victorian Labor has lost that sense of duty, and its morality has been corrupted by being so long in power. It governs for itself and for those it has drawn into its web of dependence. Proper process has collapsed. Favoured groups are rewarded. Ministers manage appearances until reality breaks through. Then comes the retreat, and the cycle starts again.
Crime is the clearest case. In the 12 months to 30 June 2025, criminal incidents rose 18.3 per cent to 483,583. Total recorded offences rose 15.7 per cent to 638,640. The offence that saw the largest decline was breach of bail conditions. And that's because the breach of bail offence was removed by the Labor Government at the request of activist groups.
Note: Data has been rebased so that the offence rate in 2019 is equal to 100
This weak signal set the tone for more offending. As offenders on bail increased and police could not charge breach of bail, crime rose further. In March, the Government finally reversed course, tightening the bail laws they had previously weakened and scrapping “remand as a last resort” for youths. It was meant as a show of strength. In reality, it was a response to polls and media heat. It took months to legislate and commence. Whatever the motivation, it was too little and too late. The culture of criminality has become ingrained.
The Victorian Police Commissioner said last week: “We have enough of a problem with the crime crisis, and I’ll call it a crisis because we don’t have enough police.”
Up until this point, the Victorian Government had been focused on managing the optics of the crisis. While tougher laws and more police were clearly the solution, the Government announced a machete ban as a knee-jerk reaction to knife crime. This was all about media optics as Government representatives posed for photos in front of "machete amnesty bins”. We know the ban was a political stunt because that’s precisely what Labor called it when proposed by others in 2023.
The pattern repeated after violent protests in Melbourne’s CBD. While the Police Commissioner pleaded for more officers, the Government reached for another headline with a ban on face masks, an irony lost on those who once mandated them during the pandemic.
Queensland provides a sharp contrast. After taking office, Premier David Crisafulli moved quickly to address youth crime. Within six weeks, his government legislated the ‘adult crime, adult time’ framework, allowing serious juvenile offenders to face adult-equivalent sentences for the most violent and persistent crimes. In May 2025, the Parliament widened the scheme to cover 33 additional offences, including attempted murder, rape, torture, aggravated robbery and drug trafficking. Each change was clearly explained and enacted without delay.
Victoria tried to do the opposite. The Labor Government had promised to raise (not lower) the age of criminal responsibility to 14, but backed down after community concern and a surge in youth offending.
The difference is conviction. Queensland knew what it believed and acted on it. Victoria waited until failure left it no choice.
Victorian Liberal Senator James Paterson recently warned against the risk of the “Victorianisation of Australia” where a long-term government institutionalises a state. We should all be alert to the formula:
Opponents are ridiculed, opposing views mocked and debate quashed.
Supporters, activists and those with the loudest voice (like Unions) are rewarded.
Strategy becomes entirely political and focuses on maintaining power by managing the media and increasing control across government, bureaucracies and institutions.
Failures are only addressed through this prism, when media and community pressure becomes too great.
If such a system endures, citizens will adapt to it. They grow used to failure and expect less from those who govern them. In time, that complacency spreads beyond one state and corrodes standards across the federation.
It teaches every Minister that appearance matters more than achievement, that an announcement counts for more than the long-term outcome. That is how standards slip in classrooms, in hospitals, across all the outcomes that once defined competence.
Conviction demands courage and humility: the courage to act, and the humility to correct. When governments lose either, they lose the people’s trust. Victoria’s task is to regain both.
