MRC analysis: The suburbs where 1 in 25 people are on the NDIS

MRC Analysis by Nico Louw

First published in the AFR. Original write up here

Residents in Sydney’s west and south-west diagnosed with autism are accessing the National Disability Insurance Scheme at rates of up to six times higher than those in the city’s more affluent northern and eastern suburbs, according to a new analysis that breaks down participation by suburb.

An analysis of NDIS data by the Menzies Research Centre has revealed broad geographic disparities in participation rates, which are much higher in lower socioeconomic areas. The disparities between richer and poorer postcodes are more extreme for participants with a primary diagnosis of autism and developmental delays.

NDIS participants with autism as a primary disability by Sydney council area (%)

Source: Menzies Research Centre

The findings have baffled researchers, who say it highlights the need for the Albanese government to have a better understanding of what is driving people onto the NDIS, and how it can support families struggling with a surge in children being diagnosed with autism.

While there have previously been suggestions wealthier and more educated parents were better at navigating the NDIS bureaucracy to win financial support, the research shows it is poorer parts of the city where participation is the greatest.

In the Campbelltown local government area in Sydney’s south-western suburbs, one in 30 residents, or 3.3 per cent of the population, are overall NDIS participants, the Menzies analysis showed.

This was four times higher than the overall participation rate in the affluent area of Mosman in the city’s north, which was one in 125 residents, or 0.8 per cent. The overall participation rate for Sydney was one in 50 people or 2 per cent.

There are suburbs in Sydney where more than one in 25 residents are active NDIS participants, including Bidwill, Hebersham and Emerton in Blacktown. The lowest overall participation rate is in Randwick in the eastern suburbs where the rate is one in 83 in Kingsford, one in 91 in Randwick North, and one in 111 in Kensington.

The variations were more extreme for people on the NDIS with autism as their primary diagnoses. The rate of autism is as high as one in 70 residents, or 1.43 per cent, in the Blue Mountains compared with one in 415, or 0.24 per cent, in the City of Sydney council area.

There were two areas where one in 50 residents has autism and is on the NDIS. They are Bradbury-Wedderburn in the Campbelltown local government area and Lawson, Hazelbrook and Linden in the Blue Mountains. The lowest were in the eastern suburbs of Kensington and Randwick.

Nine of the 10 local government areas with the highest rate of autism are in western, north-west or south-west Sydney, the analysis showed.

“There are parts of Sydney where more than one in 25 people are active NDIS participants and others where this number is closer to one in 100,” said Nico Louw, policy director and chief economist at the Menzies Research Centre who conducted the analysis.

“There is no obvious explanation for why participation rates for some disabilities are five or 10 times higher in one part of the same city as another. Understanding these differences will be vital to enabling reforms to make the NDIS more sustainable.”

Experts said the high participation rates in lower-income areas was a reflection of the lack of alternative resources beyond the NDIS for families and should be addressed. Some said the number of children in those areas could be a factor, but not a key driver.

“It is an index of the lack of access to other types of care in those areas. Maybe more affluent areas have access to private practitioners because of the co-payments the other people don’t have,” mental health expert and former Australian of the year Patrick McGorry said.

“It might be the only option for poorer parents with problems with their kids. They are going to the NDIS. The decision-making about eligibility is very soft around anything to do with children and there tends to be a lot more problem with children in more disadvantaged areas. There is less support around the kids in those areas.”

Labor announced an overhaul of the $46 billion NDIS last month with plans to stop children with mild developmental issues from joining the scheme from 2027, after conceding the huge uptick in participants with autism was the biggest drain on a system and was no longer sustainable.

Health Minister Mark Butler committed $2 billion to a new program called Thriving Kids to fill the gap, which will need state funding. The government is also expected to look at stripping away participants with other conditions such as psychosocial disabilities from the scheme.

“This analysis highlights why Australians deserve full clarity and transparency from the Albanese government on their plans for the future of the NDIS,” Coalition health spokeswoman Anne Ruston said.

The MRC analysed NDIS participant data across Sydney for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, combining it with Australian Bureau of Statistics data to construct population estimates and determine the percentage of people in those areas who are on the NDIS.

The research examined total NDIS participants as well as those with a diagnosis of autism, development delay, intellectual disability or psychosocial disability because collectively they make up 58.6 per cent of payments nationally and are expected to be targeted in government efforts to reign in growth rates to 5 per cent to 6 per cent.

While participation rates were geographically varied for most categories analysed, the exception was rates of psychosocial disabilities such as schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and severe anxiety, which are more geographically varied.

Randwick had a below-average NDIS participation but a high rate of psychosocial disability. The relatively affluent beachside suburbs of Maroubra, Malabar and La Perouse had a rate of psychosocial disability of three to four times higher than the Sydney average.

Butler and the National Disability Insurance Agency did not respond to requests for comment. NSW Minister for Families and Communities and Minister for Disability Inclusion Kate Washington declined to comment because she had not seen the report.