MRC Report: The Great NDIS Divide

analysing geographic disparities in ndis participation rates

Published: 29 September 2025

Author: Nico Louw

The rapid growth in NDIS expenditure  — averaging over 20 per cent annually in recent years — is one of the most challenging public policy issues facing the Commonwealth Government. 

This report argues that the Government's target of 8 per cent annual spending growth is completely unsustainable and a new growth target is needed to focus work to ensure the NDIS remains viable for those who need it most.

With the NDIS rollout complete, a more appropriate target would be for spending on the Scheme to grow no faster than spending on universal healthcare through Medicare and the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, currently running at 3.7% annually. This would see costs $16.5 billion lower over the next four years.

Constraining NDIS spending growth to sustainable levels will require complex, data driven, policy responses across all parts of the Scheme. 

Analysis of NDIS data undertaken by the MRC shows stark disparities in NDIS participation rates across small geographic areas within Greater Sydney.

NDIS participation rates for individual disabilities are up to 15 times higher in some parts of Sydney compared to others. Participation rates are generally much higher in Western, North West and South West Sydney. They are much lower in Northern and Eastern Sydney.

These differences cannot be explained by a single factor such as income or age. This highlights the urgent need for deeper investigation into what is driving such uneven outcomes. 

Given this scheme is designed to serve some of the most vulnerable members of society, it is vital that public confidence in the NDIS is restored and a sustainable trajectory is found.