Election Analysis - Week Five
This week confirmed what insiders in both camps have known throughout. labor will not achieve a majority it its own right. by David Hughes.
First published in the AFR
It’s been a scrappy week to round out a scrappy campaign. Amid the distractions and theatrics, both leaders have been at pains to counter the perception of an easy Labor win. The narrative that’s influenced by the published polls presents a challenge for Labor which needs to motivate its supporters.
On the ground, Liberal candidates and volunteers tell a different story – one more optimistic than the national polls suggest. They also report a reduced presence of Labor and union volunteers compared with 2022. This aligns with party research, which indicates stronger early voting support for the Coalition than at the last election.
So it was no surprise to see a flurry of emails from Labor HQ this week attempting to reset the expectations of their supporters, pointing to a much tighter contest.
This week confirmed what insiders in both camps have known throughout. Labor will not achieve a majority in its own right. A minority Labor government is the worst outcome imaginable. As the crossbench are unburdened with the responsibility of actually governing they will seek to extract huge concessions for their support at great cost to the economy.
Despite the best efforts of The Australian Financial Review to ensure our economic challenges were front and centre during the campaign, our major challenges were left unaddressed.
You can generally tell if it’s the last week of an election campaign when the Labor leader declares themself an “economic conservative”. The fact that Anthony Albanese hasn’t even bothered with that charade this time speaks volumes.
The defining aspect of this campaign has been an obsession with the periphery at the expense of our core economic challenges. Albanese’s strategy has been an embrace of the chaos to distract from the substance.
Despite a cost-of-living crisis, a return to budget deficits and mounting debt, we have had an election campaign focused instead on US President Donald Trump, confected scare campaigns, polling booth antics and an obsession with public polls to conjure up a narrative.
The view offered by The Australian Financial Review today underscores the challenge:
“On Labor’s watch, GDP per capita declined for seven consecutive quarters as high inflation eroded Australian living standards. Labor has not governed to suit the inflationary times and its economic policies have prolonged the cost-of-living pain.”
Yet, the most severe challenge lies just ahead. Australia’s demographic crunch is accelerating. In 30 years, the number of people aged over 65 will more than double, while the population under 18 will shrink. Five of the seven-fastest-growing areas of government expenditure relate to health and ageing.
So who will shoulder the cost? With no plan for meaningful tax reform from the government, the burden will fall squarely on working Australians. Already, income tax accounts for nearly half of federal revenue. And with bracket creep unaddressed, Australians may be surprised to learn that 118 countries have a lower top marginal income tax rate than we do.
Our current government doesn’t just lack a plan – it shows no interest in finding one.
As this campaign demonstrates, Australia has become more disillusioned and divided than ever. That’s another reason why a reliance on a national two-party preferred figure in polling has become fraught. There is no singular picture of the nation, and attempts to construct a narrative around national trends are disingenuous.
That means there will be some surprises on Saturday night. Marginal seats are scattered around our outer suburbs and there are suspicions that key voting groups are not given sufficient weighting in polling samples.
The Coalition campaign is hopeful that polls have also underestimated the flow of preferences it will receive from One Nation and other minor party voters. At the last election, the Coalition received 64 per cent of preferences. This time around, you can expect to see a flow closer to 80 per cent. This will contribute to at least eight seats switching from Labor to the Coalition. If the Coalition exceeds expectations and snatches a few seats from the teals, then Saturday night will prove to be the most interesting part of an otherwise dull campaign.